POLAND, ITS prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, said this week, must be ready for “dark scenarios”. He was referring, among other things, to the possibility that millions of Ukrainians, displaced by Russia’s invasion of their homeland, might flee across the 500km border with Poland. The longer the war goes on, and the worse the fighting gets, the more likely the scenario becomes.
Between one and three million Ukrainians, of a population of 44m, might try to leave their country in the coming weeks, UN agencies estimate. On February 24th and 25th, even as Russian troops closed in, the roads out of Kyiv were gridlocked with civilians attempting to escape the capital. Many were headed west, towards Poland, which unlike Ukraine is a member both of the European Union and of NATO. The governing Law and Justice (PiS) party, which is hawkish on Russia, has said it will welcome refugees from Ukraine—a remarkable contrast with its hostility to those arriving from farther afield.
Poland has been readying itself for an influx. Those arriving from Ukraine will be provided with temporary accommodation, according to a government website. Eight reception points offering food, medical supplies and information have been set up close to the border. American troops stationed in Poland have come forward to help process the expected crowds. Germany has offered assistance, too.
Since the invasion began on February 24th, Ukrainians have been arriving. Trains arriving from Ukraine at Przemysl, the first stop on the Polish side of the border, have been carrying as many as 600 people at a time. Others are coming on foot via the nearby crossing at Medyka. It is not clear how many have already arrived.
PiS came to power in 2015 in part by opposing the admission of refugees from the Middle East, whom it presented as a danger to national security. In January it started building a fence along its border with Belarus to keep migrants out, after the government there encouraged thousands of refugees from countries including Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan to cross into Poland. If the opposition were in power, the border with Belarus would be as porous as “Swiss cheese”, claimed Mr Morawiecki earlier this month.
Ukrainians are more to PiS’s liking. In recent years, 1m or so have already come to Poland. This has been good for Poland, since its businesses often struggle to find workers. It has also been good for the Ukrainians, who are attracted by the higher wages, better job opportunities, similar language and proximity to home. Since January, new rules have made it easier for citizens of Ukraine and other nearby countries to obtain temporary residence. Many Ukrainians in Poland are looking to settle there permanently, recent research shows.
As a member of NATO, Poland also now seems like a safe haven. Any attack on it by Russia would trigger the alliance’s mutual-defence provisions. Fear of Russian aggression has prompted the government to increase defence spending in recent years. It now plans to raise it to 2.5% of GDP in 2024, rather than in 2030, as previously intended. It is currently budgeted at 2.2% for this year.
While attention is focused on the border, cities across Poland are at the ready. When the Russian invasion began, the authorities in Krakow, a city in southern Poland, talked about taking in 17,000 Ukrainian refugees. Now Lukasz Kmita, the head of the surrounding Malopolska region, says there will be “no limits”. As the Russian onslaught intensifies, there is no telling how high the numbers might get.■
Our recent coverage of the Ukraine crisis can be found here