Russia has been pummelled by sanctions. The country’s oil and gas majors have been hit, it has been largely shut out of the global financial system and many Western firms are pulling out of the country. But world leaders have remained quiet about its exports of metals and agricultural goods.. Expect both categories to be “carved out”, says Natasha Kaneva, head of commodities research at JPMorgan Chase. Humanitarian considerations—poor countries rely on Russian exports of agricultural produce—make food “untouchable”, notes the bank. But even in the absence of a full embargo, war-induced disruptions are already threatening food security in vulnerable nations, and could hit key European and American industries from cars to aircraft, already stretched by covid-19.

Take the effect on agriculture first. Russia is the world’s biggest exporter of wheat, accounting for about 20% of the global total in 2020. (Ukraine ranked fifth, with 9%.) Russia is also one of the main suppliers of fertilisers, such as urea and potash, that are used globally to improve crop yields. So far these products have escaped targeted sanctions by the West. But the industry will still take a battering. Russia has not yet planted 30% of this year’s wheat crop, and insurance and reputational risks have disrupted the transport of already-harvested supplies. Countries in Africa and the Middle East are likely to be the hardest hit by short supplies or higher prices. Egypt, the world’s biggest importer of wheat, also subsidises bread prices heavily.

Fertiliser manufacturers are also feeling the pinch. Concerns over the supply of Russian natural gas, which is used in fertiliser production, puts additional pressure on the agriculture industry. Some executives at Russian fertiliser companies have also been slapped with sanctions.

Manufacturing is exposed too. For example, Russia is the world’s leading supplier of certain classes of nickel, according to the Centre for Prospective Studies and International Information. Nickel is used in, among other things, batteries for electric vehicles (EVs). Recent increases in its price would add $1,000 to the cost of producing an EV in America, according to a calculation by Morgan Stanley, another bank. American, British, German and Japanese carmakers are also dependent on Russian platinum (used to remove toxic emissions from vehicle-exhaust fumes) and palladium (used for catalytic converters). Moreover, palladium is usually transported in passenger planes, and many countries have halted flights to and from Russia.

Supplies of many commodities therefore look tight even absent Western sanctions—and worse could be yet to come. Russia may place restrictions on its exports of these materials to hit back at the West. The long-term economic effects of Mr Putin’s war will be felt far beyond Ukraine. ■

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