Shortly after Vladimir Putin began his bloody invasion of Ukraine, Russian soldiers destroyed a dam in the Kherson oblast that had blocked water from flowing into Crimea. The move was symbolic as well as utilitarian. Ukraine built the dam in 2014 after Russia annexed the peninsula, cutting off more than 80% of Crimea’s water supply and crippling harvests. This is not the first time water has played a role in Ukraine’s relationship with its neighbour. For years before the invasion, fighting in separatist areas of eastern Ukraine frequently damaged water infrastructure. When shrapnel hit a pipeline in 2019 more than 3m people were left without water.
Clashes involving water are becoming more common around the world. A new update to the Water Conflict Chronology, a database maintained by the Pacific Institute, a think-tank in Oakland, California, chronicles 1,300 water conflicts over the past 4,500 years. But their frequency has recently sped up. There were 127 of them in 2021, up from only 22 in 2000 (see chart). Peter Gleick, who created the chronology in the 1980s, sorts water conflicts into three buckets: water as a trigger of conflict; water as a weapon of war; and water systems as a casualty of violence.
As is true of many conflicts in the database, water was not the cause of the fighting in Ukraine. Damage to water systems and water scarcity are often symptoms of broader disputes. Perhaps unsurprisingly, most water conflicts in the past two decades have occurred in thirsty regions of Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. But no region is completely spared. Disputes over water also break out in rich, Western countries. Last year right-wing extremists in America threatened to take control of water facilities in the Klamath river basin, a drought-stricken area near the border between Oregon and California.
Such conflicts are not just about drinking water and agriculture; sanitation and public health are also at risk. If a hospital does not have clean, running water, for example, treating sick people becomes much harder. “We see these conflicts most often in places where basic human services are not available to everyone,” says Mr Gleick. Perhaps for that reason, dignitaries at the World Water Forum in Dakar, Senegal, this week will focus heavily on sanitation in poor countries.
These conflicts will probably continue to proliferate as climate change intensifies droughts and extreme-weather events. Fights over water are more common in parched countries where climate change is diminishing water supplies, such as Syria and the Gulf states. The most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests that drought can inflame tensions, particularly in places dependent on agriculture for local food supply.
Not all struggles over supply lead to conflict. In some instances, the IPCC says, changes in water supply can force countries that share aquifers and rivers to collaborate. But downstream states will always watch their upstream neighbours with unease. ■
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