THE DRUMBEAT of war has been getting louder. An estimated 130,000 Russian troops are massed on Ukraine’s borders, in apparent preparation for an attack. America’s national-security adviser has warned that any assault would probably begin with aerial bombing followed by a ground invasion of “massive force”. America is closing its embassy in Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, and moving its operations about 500km away, near the border with Poland. The odds of conflict seem perilously high, but no one can be sure of Vladimir Putin’s intentions.
Russia may yet find an off-ramp. On February 14th Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister, told Mr Putin in a televised meeting that diplomatic engagement was “far from exhausted” and that there remained “a chance” of striking an agreement. He suggested “continuing and intensifying” talks, to which Mr Putin gave his assent: “Good,” said the Russian president. The Kremlin wants, among other concessions, a commitment from NATO that it will not expand to include Ukraine.
Expect the flurry of negotiations to continue. Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, heads to Moscow on February 15th, fresh from a visit with Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president. Mr Zelensky has repeatedly played down warnings from foreign leaders, whom he thinks are scaremongering. “I think I know the details deeper than any other president,” he has said.
The Economist is following the crisis closely. Our coverage below describes what’s at stake, what lies behind Mr Putin’s thinking, and what might happen.
Our latest stories
The Ukrainian port of Odessa prepares for war (Feb 14th)
The mayor is ready for anything
To Russian denials, America warns of an imminent invasion of Ukraine (Feb 13th)
But Russia’s military build-up continues
Diplomacy has created an opening for detente in Ukraine, but beware a trap (Feb 12th)
Russia is invoking the Minsk agreement to sow chaos, not to bring peace
Russia’s military build-up enters a more dangerous phase (Feb 11th)
New satellite images show troops and equipment massing ever-closer to Ukraine
Russia’s military build-up
How big is Russia’s military build-up around Ukraine? (Jan 31st)
It is the biggest concentration of firepower in Europe since the cold war
As war looms larger, what are Russia’s military options in Ukraine? (Jan 22nd)
Will Ukraine’s muddy ground halt Russian tanks? (Feb 7th)
The spring thaw may complicate an attack. It won’t stop itThey all have their drawbacks
Shuttle diplomacy
Emmanuel Macron’s Ukraine mission buys time, but works no miracles (Feb 8th)
He is treading a perilous path between his own friends’ suspicions and Vladimir Putin’s belligerence
How to talk to Mr Putin (Jan 8th)
Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine has created a chance to enhance the security of Europe
Russia and the West meet for a crucial week of diplomacy (Jan 15th)
Even as they talk, both sides are preparing for war
Views from Kyiv and Moscow
Why Ukraine’s president is talking down the threat from Russia (Feb 2nd)
Volodymyr Zelensky’s call for calm rubs America the wrong way
Ukrainians are peculiarly relaxed about Russia’s troop build-up (Jan 8th)
Many have grown inured to a risk they can do nothing about
Some Ukrainians ignore the prospect of war. Others are fleeing (Feb 9th)
Liza and Yulia disagree about the risk of a Russian invasion
If Vladimir Putin does decide on war in Ukraine, few Russians will be expecting it (Feb 7th)
The propaganda machine has not yet been switched on
The Economist Asks: Will there be war or peace in Ukraine? (Feb 3rd)
We ask Oleksander Danilyuk, Ukraine’s former national security chief
The economic consequences of war
America prepares the “mother of all sanctions” against Russia (Feb 1st)
How much would they hurt?
How will Europe cope if Russia cuts off its gas? (Jan 29th)
Better than you might think
The hidden costs of cutting Russia off from SWIFT (Dec 18th)
America’s foes would rush to alternatives, hastening its financial decline
NATO’s revival
How Russia has revived NATO (Feb 12th)
Ukraine has forced America and its allies to bond. But the country’s future is still uncertain
Jens Stoltenberg explains how to step back from the brink of European conflict (Feb 9th)
NATO chief says Russia must respect the rights of countries to choose their own path
As Russia menaces Ukraine, eastern European countries grow nervous (Jan 30th)
Even relatively friendly countries in the region mistrust Russian expansionism
Russia’s menacing of Ukraine is unlikely to induce NATO to retreat (Jan 8th)
It may have the opposite effect
All the rest
Yuval Noah Harari argues that what’s at stake in Ukraine is the direction of human history (Feb 9th)
Humanity’s greatest political achievement has been the decline of war. That is now in jeopardy
Film: Disputed Borders: Russia and Ukraine (Feb 9th)
Why can’t Russia accept its neighbour’s independence?
“Taras Bulba” and the tragedy of Russia and Ukraine (Feb 3rd)
Literature offers a better way to think about their vexed relations
How tensions in Ukraine could rile Egypt (Feb 3rd)
A disruption in the wheat market would cause serious harm to the biggest Arab country
A war in Ukraine could have global consequences (Jan 29th)
Human suffering, economic shock and a geopolitical realignment
What are Vladimir Putin’s military intentions in Ukraine? (Jan 29th)
Only he can say
Germany’s new chancellor dithers in the face of Russia’s threats (Jan 29th)
But Olaf Scholz is starting to firm up
What China thinks of possible war in Ukraine (Jan 29th)
Shared hostility to America makes China close to Russia, but cautious
Commodities traders brace for a war in Ukraine (Jan 29th)
Tight markets mean that prices are all too responsive to rising tensions
Momentum is building for war in Ukraine (Jan 22nd)
Vladimir Putin is courting disaster for Russia’s neighbour—and himself
How to deter Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine (Dec 18th)
The West, and Ukrainians, should raise the cost of Russian aggression
Why Russia has never accepted Ukrainian independence (Dec 18th)
It might have, had it chosen democracy
Joe Biden adopts a tough new tone with Vladimir Putin (Dec 11th)
But will it be enough to avert another Russian invasion of Ukraine?
The Ukrainian army has got better at fighting Russian-backed separatists (Dec 4th)
But now war of a different kind looms