U.K. 10-Year Inflation Gauge Advances to Highest Since 2008

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The Stratford Centre shopping mall and Morgan House in east London. 
Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg

Market-based inflation expectations in the U.K. rose to the highest level since the global financial crisis.

The so-called 10-year breakeven rate climbed 3 basis points to 3.48%, the highest reading since 2008. The gauge, which is derived from the difference between conventional gilts yields and those linked to inflation, has risen almost 50 basis points point so far this year.

The repricing comes before the Bank of England meets to set policy on Thursday. It follows record demand at a 10-year inflation linked government bond last week, a sign that investors are scrambling to hedge their portfolio against the prospect of rising consumer prices.

Financial markets the world over have been signalling that inflation may mount a comeback. The U.K. has been at the forefront of the resulting global bond selloff, fueled by the pace of the British vaccine roll-out and a hawkish tilt by the Bank of England.

While the U.K.’s rate of consumer inflation has held below the BOE’s 2% annual target for 18 months, economists expect it to accelerate to just below that goal this year. That’s raising the possibility that central-bank officials could opt to tighten their ultra-loose monetary policy.

The BOE’s chief economist Andy Haldane said last month he sees a risk of U.K. inflation accelerating more than expected, warning fellow central bankers against being too relaxed about taming the rise in consumer prices.